Inequality of Opportunity in Palestine

One of the hallmarks of post revolutionary Middle Eastern regimes was the focus on egalitarianism. The educational system was designed to create a broad middle class of civil servants, removing the social structures that created a wealthy landed elite and peasants with a very thin middle class. Over time, the institutions created to support this egalitarian structure became unsustainable and were weakened by fiscal realities. The guarantee of a government job for all secondary school graduates, which was explicit in Egypt and implicit throughout the region, was no longer feasible after the collapse of the regional economy in the 1980s. However, education is the great equalizer in the Middle East, as it is in the west. While having a degree has always been secondary to having the right wasta (connections), there is a clear educational premium and education systems are created to give access to all. In this regard, post-revolutionary regimes succeeded. The increase in schooling throughout the 1950s, 60s and 70s surpassed other developing regimes. Unfortunately, the question today is often of one of the quality of this schooling. In order to be better prepared for exams, parents pay teachers to stay after the short school day to work as tutors, but only the better off can pay. In a series of papers Djavad Salehi-Isfahani has used recently available TIMSS data to understand how the issue of parental background effects equality of opportunity in the Middle East. In a recent workshop in London, where I presented some preliminary findings from the Palestine School to Work Transition Survey, Djavad and I discussed this issue further. I wasn't sure how much of this had been covered with Palestinian data, so I used the SWTS data to get some preliminary answers. Here's one graph that highlights some of the preliminary findings. What this graph shows is that as an individual's self-assessed financial conditions deteriorate, going from "Good" to "Very Poor" the probability of still being in school decreases and the probability of saying that they left school early, without completing it, increases. These data are only for 15-29 year olds and there is more information about exactly why individuals say that they left school, either failing exams, to focus on home duties, to start working, etc. Using this additional information will allow me to get more below the surface, but I've already run mulitnomial logit regression models to see whether these self assessments or other factors matter more, and these self assessments remain important even in the regression framework. While this shouldn't be too surprising, it is worth noting the impact of these financial conditions have educational outcomes. As Palestinians attempt to rebuild from this latest war, it is going to be harder to encourage young people to put in the long hours and sacrifice that will come from staying in school. Resources from families will be diverted away from education toward rebuilding their homes. Likewise, the wounded are going to have difficulties in school.